NFC East
Dallas Cowboys +150
The Cowboys come in as the co-favorite to win the division,
which means they will once again have the opportunity to disappoint their
rambunctious fans. The annual high expectations in Dallas haven’t been realized
in quite some time. Their last Super Bowl appearance and win was 27 years ago…
Speaking of disappointing – its time Dak Prescott proves
he’s elite on the field. Every year it seems to be the same talk: “I’m
confident in myself” “I know I’m an elite player” blah blah – talk is cheap and
he’s starting to lose the benefit of the doubt. He ranked 9th in
2021 – which doesn’t sound all that bad, but he had some real stinkers that he
was able to hide with some massive stat padding games. Given the offensive
talent around him, I think we should expect more out of Dak. And unfortunately
for Dak, his pass catchers aren’t as deep as 2021 with Amari Cooper leaving for
Cleveland. So, Dak will need to play better and limit the fumbling – he coughed
it up 15 times last season.
The defensive side of the ball also has huge potential for
disappointment. While, I love watching Micah Parsons there isn’t much more on
the defense that moves the needle. Trevon Diggs can make some spectacular
plays. He is also known to inexplicably blow his coverage and give up big gains.
The good with the bad and you’re right back where you started.
As always – the Cowboys are overhyped and I do not trust
this team one bit.
Philadelphia Eagles +150
The other co-favorite is not without concerns, but they were
the opposite of disappointing in 2021 when they surprisingly made the
postseason. After a slow and shaky start the Eagles found their groove mid-way
through the year. This was in large part to adjusting their offense to match
Jalen Hurts skill set by allowing him to use his legs. Why you would want to
try and force such a talent to sit in the pocket is beyond me, but at least
Philly eventually figured it out. Imagine what a whole season of playing to the
strengths of your team might do?
I could see this team winning the Super Bowl as a best case
scenario. Or falling flat on their faces and not even sniffing the playoffs. A
lot will depend on the play of the aforementioned Jalen Hurts. The trade for AJ
Brown should help. Devonta Smith improving in his 2nd year will also
be welcomed, as will Dallas Goedert hopefully playing the full season as the
undisputed lead TE on the roster.
The defense will be a top 10 unit, maybe even top 5
depending on how the new guys gel. They’ll have one of the best d-lines in all
of football led by Fletcher Cox. Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson come over
to boost their secondary and Kyzir White and James Bradberry fill in the middle
of this scary, scary defense.
Washington Football Team +500
The Commanders is a stupid name and they really should have
kept Football Team, but of course the front office in Washington would make the
wrong decision – its what they do best.
Washington’s D was supposed to be a force and this team’s
strength in 2021, but it was far from it, as they finished among the league’s
worst. They hoped the return of the previous number 1 overall draft pick –
Chase Young would help, but he has been placed on IR and will miss at least a
little bit of time.
They brought in Carson Wentz to lead the offense and as we
discussed in the AFC preview, that plan failed miserably for the Colts a season
ago. I don’t see it going much better for Wentz after the laundry swap.
It should also be mentioned that Washington was real excited
about rookie running Brian Robinson and there were rumors he was going to be
named the starter. Fast forward a day after said rumors and he’s going to miss
significant time after being shot in a robbery gone. He was being robbed in
case that wasn’t clear.
Ney York Giants +800
Is this the year Daniel Jones takes a leap forward? Is this
the year Saquon Barkley stays healthy and sets the field on fire? Is this the
year the Giants get back to winning football? Ehh probably not.
They do have a pretty deep receiving core and some young
pieces of D, but this team probably isn’t a threat to make real noise.
Fun fact: Last year I bet the Giants more than any other
team going 5-1 in games I bet them to cover the spread. As they say: Good teams
win games, great teams cover the spread.
The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +150 – I don’t trust
the Boys and my gut is telling Jalen Hurts has a break out year.
Worth a gamble: Save your money here – I don’t give
Washington or NY much of a shot.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers -190
The Pack once again find themselves as the cream of the crop
in the North and the 3rd highest odds to win the Super Bowl. They
have reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, but lost his number 1 receiver, Davante Adams,
and his 3rd favorite option, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They brought
in Sammy Watkins to try to fill some of that void, but there is no replacing
Adams and I feel strongly that this receiving core is inferior to most.
Look for running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to be an
even bigger part of the pass game, two guys I’d look to target for those that
play fantasy football.
As for the number of questions I have on offense, I do not
have the same reservations on the other side of the ball. This defense is top 3
on paper with a killer secondary. If they overachieve at stopping the run, this
might be the very best the NFL has to offer.
Minnesota Vikings +260
I’m not going to look, but I assume I could write the exact same
thing I wrote about this team a year ago; disappointing defense, is Kirk
Cousins a QB that can take a team to the next level? Tons of talent on offence
with Delvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen, but it won’t be enough
because its never enough for Cousins and Vikings.
I probably also had a comment about Mike Zimmer being on
thin ice. Well, that ice cracked. Zimmer is out and the new and 1st
time head coach is Kevin O’Connell. He spent the last 2 seasons as the Rams OC.
So, the Vikings switch to an offensive minded head coach to go along with their
excessive artillery. The Vikings are definitely headed in the right direction,
but need to climb a bit higher before they can hang with the elite teams in
NFC.
Detroit Lions +1000
If watching a week of Lions practice condensed down to 55
minutes for an episode has taught me anything its that the NFL takes GRIT! It’s
been fun seeing the Lions on Hard Knocks. They have sure edited the film to
make you think this is going to be Jerrod Goff’s resurrection year, and maybe
there is something to that.
It wasn’t that long ago that Jerrod Goff was the number 1
draft pick. Even shorter ago he was playing in the Super Bowl. Its not like
Goff is Sam Darnold. He has had success in this league. I think he has a lot to
prove and has matured since leaving LA. The Lions should have at least an
adequate offense. D’Andre Swift has the potential to be a top running back in
this league. Amon St. Brown was an absolute steal when he was drafted as the
112th pick in the 2021 draft and he is making it a point to show the
whole world why.
However, the defense is going to struggle. The number 2 pick
in this year’s draft, Aiden Hutchinson, is a nice building block, but it takes
11 on defense. The Lions just don’t have the talent on the line, or in the
middle, and especially not in the secondary. This team is going to give up some
really high totals. Which is good news for over bettors.
Chicago Bears +1500
Da Bears. The fact they have worse odds than the Lions to
win the division should tell you all you need to know. This team is going to be
awful. And that’s about all there is to say about that.
The Pick: There is too much juice on the Packers for
me, but I do think they take the division.
Worth a gamble: Vikings +260 This offense should
roll. If the D can step it up maybe its enough to overthrow The Pack as the
Kings of the North. Rodgers isn’t getting any younger and has less support than
he has had in a long time.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -250
Heavy favorites to win the division, but I don’t think it’s
going to be as easy as everything is assuming. Tom Brady retired and unretired
in a matter of 30 days or something like that. He missed 2 weeks of training
camp in what was described as “approved time off”. And well no shit – if the
GOAT says he has to miss a couple weeks, you approve it, but how much will this
cost the team?
Tampa is already looking to have a questionable O-line. Not
the greatest news for a 45 year old QB. Brady will also have a few new targets
to throw to and the time his missed can’t be overlooked. Training camp is the
time players get a feel for one another. Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Kyle
Rudolph could have used that time to get on track with Brady. Now he is the
ultimate professional and I have no doubt he can get his teammates up to speed
quickly, but I could see a slow start from the offense.
What exactly is going on in Brady’s personal and will it be
a distraction? If the tabloids are true and Giselle has moved out, then yea I
expect that to be a huge distraction for Brady. Something to keep an eye on
early.
New Orleans Saints +300
The Saints will be happy to have Jameis Winston back from
injury. The Taysom Hill experiment ended in the laboratory catching on fire and
almost burned the whole building to the ground. Well, at least now the Saints know
Hill can have a package or 2, or be thrown out there for trick plays, but he is
NOT a full time quarterback. This is something I’ve known for years, but for
whatever reason Sean Payton thought he might be the successor to Drew Bress.
Sometimes smart NFL guys are really dumb.
The Saints also get Michael Thomas back from injury, but its
uncertain if he’ll be able to get back to his old form. They also signed Jarvis
Landry and drafted WR, Chris Olave out of the Ohio State University. And I can’t
forget their do everything running back Alvin Kamara. If Jameis has finally
matured at least a little, and it was looking to be going in that direction
before he went down early last season, then this offense could surprise a lot
of people.
What won’t be surprising is when their defense leaves
offenses shaking their heads and their playmakers running for the ice bath. The
Saints are poised to be one of the NFL’s best defenses. Arguably a top 3
d-line. A very strong secondary and one of the games premier linebackers in
Damario Davis. Do not sleep on the Saints.
Carolina Panthers +900
Well, it didn’t take long for Matt Rhule and the Carolina
Panthers to learn Sam Darnold ain’t going to cut it. So, they brought in Baker Mayfield
and started a quarterback competition in training camp that really wasn’t one.
There was never a doubt in my mind Baker would win the starting job.
Baker is another guy I’m higher on than most. He played with
multiple injuries in 2021 and he probably shouldn’t have, but say what you want
about him, he’s a gamer and a tough SOB. He also had to start his career in
Cleveland and they have a knack for not doing their QBs any favors. I look for
us to finally see Baker’s true colors and I expect them to be much brighter than
we have previously seen.
Typically, when I think of Carolina teams I think of strong
defensive football – unfortunately that’s not what anyone will be thinking when
they watch these guys in 2022. Projected to be a bottom 3rd defense
this team has a ways to go. If Rhule is on the hot seat like many suggest, then
he might be the perfect choice for a “first coach to be fired” bet. I don’t
take such props, but if I did, I’d look Rhule.
Atlanta Falcons +3500
They have the lowest odds of any team to win their division
and the 2nd lowest to win the Super Bowl at 200/1. In other words,
they have no shot.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +300 Beyond not betting
such a big division favorite, I actually like Saints. Their defense will be one
of the NFL’s best and their offense could be really good too. I just have a bad
feeling about Tampa.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams +130
The defending Super Bowl champions come in as the slight
favorite to win the division. Not much of a surprise there, though the 49ers aren’t
far behind. You always need to be aware of the Super Bowl let down and the new
target that gets stitched on the backs of their jerseys.
Matthew Stafford says his elbow is fine after being on a
pitch count all training camp. Do I believe him? No. But I’ve followed Stafford’s
entire career pretty closely. I’ve seen he play through an incalculable number
of injuries and always he was one of the league’s best. No one believed me because
he played in Detroit and well the Lions are the Lions. But look what happened
in his first year out of Detroit? Checkmate doubters.
The offense and defense see some faces come and some faces
go, but they’ll still be absolute juggernauts on both sides of the ball. I’d
imagine they get off to a slow start, but find their groove come mid-October or
so.
San Francisco 49ers +150
The 49ers ended up restructuring Jimmy G’s contract and
brought him back for one more year. This tells me the 49er coaching staff isn’t
100% sold or even 80% sold on Trey Lance being ready. You it use to be a QB was
drafted and he sat on the bench for 3 or so years before being thrown to the wolves
that makes up NFL defenses. Nowadays you’re expected to come in and lead a team
as soon as your name is called on draft night. Its no wonder we see more busts
with top picks these days – that’s a shit ton of pressure on a 22 year old kid.
Having Debo Samuel back should help Trey navigate his first
season as the teams starter (written in pencil). After trade demands and social
media posts that he’d never play in San Francisco again, money won and Debo stays
put. There was never really a doubt. You don’t let a force like Debo just leave
and the 49ers made sure he didn’t. Beyond Debo and Brandon Aiyuk the receiving
core gets pretty weak. Tight End George Kittle obviously helps, but when he inevitably
gets hurt in 6 or 7 weeks then what?
Win with defense! The 49ers have a solid one, but will need
to improve. They had 20 takeaways last season – which was good enough for 20th
in the league – or not great. They also turned the ball over 24 times – again not
great. With Trey Lance getting his shot – I don’t see that number shrinking
any, so this defense will have to do more.
Arizona Cardinals +400
I was really high on the Cardinals a season ago, and I was
in the minority there. They started off on fire, but eventually ran into some
injury issues and cooled down, but were still able to make a playoff run. It
was an incredibly productive season and one a young team should grow from.
This is another team that might be a bit thin at WR, at
least until Deandre Hopkins returns from his suspension. Christian Kirk has
moved on to Jacksonville and has been replaced by “Hollywood” Brown”. Larry
Fitzgerald retired after his 43rd season. I always like seeing a guy
stay with one team his whole career, especially one as celebrated as Fitzgerald’s.
He was/is a great on and off the field and has done so much for the community
and the development of the game. Guys like Fitzgerald are never replaced.
The Cardinals had and have an underrated defense. Budda
Baker might be my favorite player to watch in all of football. The Cards were a
top 7 team in turnover forced in 2021 and I expect the same. Teams that win get
it done on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals fit that description.
Seattle Seahawks +2000
The Russell Wilson era is over and the Geno Smith era
begins. Not really. I assume Geno is just a place holder while the Seahawks
regroup. They will not be contenders this year and project to be one of the
league’s worst. No idea how they are as high as +2000 to take the division. Not
going to happen.
The Pick/worth a gamble: Cardinals +400 – I don’t
trust the 49ers yet and I think the Rams have a bit of a letdown. So, I’ll take
a shot on the Cardinals at very favorable odds.
